Test Plot Log

WATCHING WEATHER

Elephant Hill Test Plot / October 2023
Interview with Joey Farewell by Jen Toy
El Sereno neighbor

Jen: I wanted to create this post to share information with our Test Plot community about the wondrous topic of weather. Watching weather patterns and climate forecasting is both an art and science. It’s also increasingly necessary for the business we’re in, and a field that I want more people to understand given the weather extremes we’re all living through nowadays. To that end, please enjoy this conversation with Joey Farewell, a resident of El Sereno, conservation co-chair of Los Angeles CNPS, and unofficial Test Plot meteorologist.

PS. easy access to the links that Joey mentions:
WeatherWest Blog (check out the comments)
Tropial Tidbits (access to GFS model)
National Weather Service
Ambient Home Weather Station
Weather Underground (crowd sourced data from home stations)

Jen: Hey Joey, welcome and thanks for chatting today. How did you get interested in following weather?

Joey: Hi Jen! I’ve always really enjoyed the weather and its nexus with many of my favorite interests –– chasing powder for skiing & snowboarding, growing native plants, and learning about Californian habitat. I also grew up with a father who’s totally obsessed with weather, so meteorology was (and still is) my way to connect with him. Nothing gets my dad more fired up than a big snow cycle forecast for 5-7 days out in the Sierra Nevada –– and it’s really fun to share that excitement.

Also I’m a trusts & probate lawyer, and while I really enjoy estate planning work, meteorology makes for a fun side hobby.

Jen: I’ve heard you talk about how following weather makes you feel good...can you talk about that more?

Joey: Yea, accurate forecasting is kind of like having a superpower for the stuff I’m into. You ski better snow (because others foolishly made plans without following the data –– leaving more tracks of deep powder), you plant native plants at better moments (see: our impeccably timed Elephant Hill Test Plot installation, which was followed by 3” of rain just a day later, and our relaxed watering schedule), and you are just generally more connected with the natural world around you. Rain isn’t something that just happens to you that day; instead, you observed a process, maybe learned something along the way, and then perceive the phenomenon of water falling from the sky. It also gives one an illusory feeling of control in an otherwise indomitable universe. So that’s cool too.

Jen: Weather is kind of interesting because it connects global patterns with local experience. How do you think about scale when you are following weather trends?

Joey: That’s an interesting question. I would say that, when it comes to precipitation and snow in California, the storm door is (as we well know) closed more often than it’s open. Global patterns often conspire against us here, particularly in Southern California –– and that seems even more true in an era of climate change and “stuck” weather patterns. When that storm really opens, though, it’s both (generally) great for us and really problematic for other places that are far more accustomed to receiving rain and snow. Big precipitation years in California usually indicate some level of drought in the Pacific Northwest, fires in Australia (particularly during El Niño years), and below-average snow on the East Coast. When we’re scoring, the world often isn’t. That translates to forecasting, too –– when we see big high pressure building in the Hudson Bay region, for example, we can usually assume that the Northeast will get shut out and we can expect stormy low pressure out west. And when we see a pattern favoring cold temperatures and snow in New York, it’s usually time to put away the skis and break out the hose in the garden.

Beyond pitted after chasing 3ft of Hokkaido powder, freshly frothed by Siberian winds across the Sea of Japan, in the Kiroro backcountry. Guide said it was the first time a client told him where the deepest snow was.

Digging out for the third time that day –– February 2019 in Mammoth Lakes, CA. A cold powder cycle unlike any other (until last year)

Jen: What is your favorite forecasting model? What is it useful for, and what are the limits?

Joey: Let’s put it this way –– all models are wrong, but taken in context, and in sum, they’re useful. Supercomputing, the internet, model aggregator websites such as Tropical Tidbits, weather blogs like WeatherWest, they all have made for what I consider the golden-age of home forecasting, but with that comes a myriad of ways to misuse that data and get humiliated in front of your friends and colleagues.

So here’s what I do. I generally use the USA-based GFS, not because it’s the best (that would be the ECMWF, the European model and gold-standard for forecasting) or because I’m particularly patriotic (our tax dollars at work, though!), but because it’s freely available, it’s generally pretty good out to 7 days, can spot things with some accuracy out to 10 days, and after that is, to put it kindly, useless. We call the post-12’ish day forecast “fantasyland” in model data, because it’s just too hard at the moment to forecast that far in advance with (1) our computing limits and (2) the inherent chaos of weather. It also “runs” (produces readable data) 4x a day, whereas the ECMWF only runs 2x a day (viewable around noon and then midnight), so the latter isn’t quite as good for a daily weather nerd routine.

For big cycles and events, it’s best to use multiple models –– so that’s when we are looking at the GFS, the ECMWF, and other models like the German IKON and Canadian CMC, all to try to find a consistent solution between them to best anticipate what is really going to happen. And then there are also short term models, like the NAM and HWRF, which are run at higher resolutions and can spot things (like isolated thunderstorm development or rain shadowing –– which is when topographical features such as mountains “catch” the moisture from rain-bearing clouds and deny it to the areas behind them –– where certain areas might get skunked) that the lower resolution models can’t. There’s also the ensemble models, which is when the GFS, the ECMWF, and others, are run multiple times and then averaged together in a super-model of sorts –– but that data is more available to the pros than the lay forecaster.

And what’s critical is to corroborate model findings with other users, too. The internet makes this more possible than ever (though I’ve got to shout-out a few weather nerds of mine in real life, where “lol dude the 18Z GFS is totally bonkers” is a real thing that we text each other), where we can connect with other model-riders (yes, that’s a real thing) on fabulous online weather forums like WeatherWest. On the comment board for each post (follow the activity on the most recent post for up-to-date analysis), you’ll find general chatter about current conditions, model data, storm prognostications (and post-mortems), banter, and –– my personal favorite –– the absolute hazing of folks who call “bust” on a storm far too early, before any meaningful precipitation or effects were forecasted to begin in the first place. These folks aren’t professionals, but they’re close. And oftentimes these users are the first to spot long-range patterns and atmospheric perturbations that result in that thing we all love: storms.

And speaking of pros –– I’ve absolutely got to mention that the National Weather Service is an invaluable resource for both confirming your own read of the data, but also illuminating many other things you will invariably miss in your forecasting. They present their accessible info through social media, but the good stuff is in their AFDs –– called “Area Forecast Discussions.” These discussions (updated 2 to 3 times daily) contain thorough, high-level analysis of both short and medium term forecast windows. They usually don’t go out past that time-frame (see the above community WeatherWest for proper fantasyland chatter) but are seriously invaluable for learning to understand this stuff. And again, National Weather Products reflect our tax dollars at work! In a world of complicated, slow government –– I love reading and learning from the professionals at the National Weather Service. It’s public work at its best.

Click here for all the weather discussion you could ever want! (www.weatherwest.com)

Modeled Precipitation ala GFS model via Tropical Tidbits

Jen: What kind of weather station do you have at your house?

Joey: I really like our Ambient Weather station. You could pay more for a Davis, etc, but these work great, are user-friendly, and connect well with Weather Underground and a range of data supporting apps.

Jen: Couple more questions. You’ve said that this has been “the best year ever” for habitat restoration plantings –– can you tell us why that is?

Joey: Oh man, the 2022-2023 planting year! Wet season for the ages. Deserving of a treasure trove of superlatives (I’ve written too much already –– so I’ll spare you). We had a strong storm in early November (2-3”), a couple smaller fronts that kept things moist and happy through early December –– at which point a series of atmospheric rivers took aim at California and just unloaded consistent, cold storms through late March, early April. We had one “long” break from precipitation, like 12 days in late January and early Feb, and then it was game on again. Then, as if all that rain wasn’t enough (but at 38” in El Sereno, it definitely was), May was downright cold and cloudy, June went full gloom, July wasn’t that bad, and in August –– it rained like (almost) never before during a SoCal summer! 4” in El Sereno (bringing our season total up to 42” incredible inches for the wet season ending September 30), 6” in Glendale, just all totally bonkers. After all that, the weather gods delivered perhaps the most unexpected coup-de-grace: September was nice and cool for once! I think we watered the Elephant Hill Test Plot like 6 times all year. Unbelievable.

Jen: Finally, any thoughts on this coming year and the predicted El Niño?

Joey: I’ve got a few thoughts! More likely than not that we get above-average precipitation in SoCal –– which is a big deal in California, where we are more likely to have a dry year than a wet one –– as strong El Niños are as sure a bet as you’ll find for wet season forecasting. In fact, it’s really only strong Niños that move the needle in that regard for CA, and we certainly can get wet years without them (last year was a La Niña).

Indeed, on one hand, things look good. A strong El Niño (particularly an east-based one, as we have now) should theoretically amplify the southerly jet stream into Southern and Central California, propping the storm door open for mid-latitude cyclones to provide the ultra rare back-to-back wet years for LA.

But in an era of climate change and rapidly warming oceans, things seem less predictable than usual. Because El Niños operate via an oceanic-atmospheric relationship that relies fundamentally on ocean temperature anomalies –– in layperson terms, a bunch of warm water in a certain place (certain zones of the equatorial Pacific) that are markedly warmer than areas around them –– they may be less impactful when the entire Northern Pacific is basically on fire. The temperature gradient might be there for strong Niño effects (ie, a strong southern jet stream), but what if the overall oceanic temperatures in the mid and northern latitudes are warm enough to disturb that effect? That’s what some folks smarter than me think happened in 2015-2016, the last strong El Niño (which, outside of a riveting week in early January, was a total bust for SoCal storms).

So yeah! Looks good, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we go dry, perhaps owing to the extraordinary warmth above, or for another fly in the ointment yet to be discovered. But that’s part of the fun, isn’t it?

(OK well, not the global warming thing)

Jen: Thank you for sharing your knowledge with our Test Plot community. Next time, let’s talk more about local weather and microclimates.

Satellite footage that produced the Mammoth snowstorm above. A mid-latitude winter cyclone to quit your job for!

IT’S RAINING OAKS, AND OTHER UPDATES

Elephant Hill Test Plot / June 08 2023
By Joey Farewell
El Sereno neighbor

To cut to the punchline, the plots are thriving! The gods blessed us with one of the wettest winters in the past 30 years, with local gauges showing between 36-38” of total rainfall at the bottom and top of the hill, respectively. As the designated Test Plot Meteorologist, I (Joey) connected with staff at the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, which provided official precipitation data going back to the 1996/1997 season for their nearby rain station in Alhambra. According to their data, this year of years beat all but one wet season (the vaunted 2004-2005 winter), with a total of 36” of precipitation at the Alhambra gauge since October. Incredible! Read on below...

May -- mustard is in full bloom, grasses are going to seed, and the mowing has just begun

What has this meant for our local El Sereno Test Plot? Mostly good things! If you recall, we installed over 200 native plants back in November 2022. Below is the complete plant list we planted in November, mainly sourced from North East Trees as well as donations from TreePeople, a few neighbors, and wildflower seed from California Native Plant Society.

We’ve seen deep establishment of many of our native chaparral and scrub plants, including black sage, white sage, sagebrush, fuschia, and monkeyflower. Remarkably, we have not had to water these plants at all. This is because we had a powerful storm drop over 2” immediately after planting in November, which was then followed by consistent, regular rainfall and cold temperatures all the way through April. Since then, we have seen below-average temperatures, heavy fog, and occasional drizzle. The result is a stunningly efficient establishment of our chaparral plants –– they are already deeply rooted, large in size, and show no signs of drought stress. Conversely, the only species we’ve had issues with thus far is California buckwheat. Generally, Eriogonum species are quick to establish and grow in loamy California soils, but we hypothesize that the combination of clay soils at the Test Plot site and extreme rains have stunted the growth of the buckwheat, leaving them dormant (at best) and yellow and sickly (at worst). Time will tell how the buckwheats react to the summer heat, but we are optimistic that they will rally once the soil fully dries out and the roots are able to breathe a little easier.

Our slate of trees is also thriving, even in unexpected ways. We planted a variety of one gallon native oaks, black walnuts, and larger tree-like shrubs like Elderberry and Lemonadeberry. All are doing really well and showing few signs of stress, if any.

And speaking of oaks and walnuts, with the consistent wetting rains and cold air, the many acorns and walnuts we direct-seeded into the north facing slope are germinating en masse! They started sprouting in January, and since then we’ve counted dozens upon dozens of Quercus agrifolia (Coast Live Oak / Whet) and Juglans californica (Southern California Black Walnut / Takaape' Waashut) both within the plots and on our north-facing slopes. These acorns and walnuts will set deep taproots that may give them a superior chance of drought resistance and longevity, especially in an era of climate change, compared to those we planted from containers.

The only problem with this many baby trees coming up has been flagging them for watering and protection –– but thankfully, that’s where the kids from El Rio Elementary School in Lincoln Heights came to the rescue. We recently held a school hike and oak-marking activity at Elephant Hill, where the kids used bright orange flags to locate and mark the many oak seedlings coming up all over the Test Plot. To give you an idea of how just how many oaks are coming up, we actually ran out of flags (and there were at least 25 left in that bag…).

Moving forward, while there is a now a robust presence in the Test Plot basin itself in our little valley at Elephant Hill, growing in tandem with a community of Black walnuts and oaks, coffeeberry, poison oak and monkeyflower on the adjoining north facing slope, the upper flat and southeastern bowl areas have been largely dominated by mustard, european grasses, and castor bean.

We hope that our early fast adapters will get established and start creating mycorrhizal relationships that better support a coastal scrub and woodland ecosystem and allow native habitat to compete better with the invasives surrounding the plot. In truth, this is already happening –– oaks and walnuts (and even Western Vervain, a riparian plant) are volunteering in places that were dominated by mustard this time last year. Where there was once a stand of impenetrable mustard, we’ve already got baby trees in our baby Test Plot. Hard to imagine a better first year at the Hill.

As for next year? We hope to plant more wildflowers (inspired by the Elysian Park Test Plot Superbloom) and native plants (especially grasses) in the fall to take advantage of the nascent El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean, which generally (but not always) portends above-average precipitation in Southern California. In fact, many of the wettest winters in Southern California history are associated with El Niños –– but you’ll have to read our Test Plot Weather Update coming soon for more on that!

Other Assorted Stuff
Another update we have is about MOWING. Each year in May-June, LA City, which owns the parcels of land around the Test Plot (on MRCA land), hires a contractor to mow the grasses and mustard for fuel reduction. We were pleased to see that they mowed around the fences, respecting our marked plantings and even protecting pockets of poppies and other natives. Hopefully, each year the area they need to mow will shrink.

Planting Strategy

We planted four areas:
1) walnut and oak acorns and some 1 gallons along the north facing slope down to the toe of the slope where it drops into the east-facing basin – as mentioned above, these lil guys are taking off.
2) in the basin, coastal sage scrub plants in an upper plot that is largely flat – this plot was sheet mulched with cardboard. Initially these plants as a general rule, did not grow as rapidly as the lower plot, though they are the same species mix.
3) a bit further down/east, a lower plot with a stronger eastern aspect
4) along the edges – coyote brush, mulefat, laurel sumac and other tough shrubs that will hopefully hold their own against the mow edges.

Plant List (November 2022)

Juglans californica	SOCAL BLACK WALNUT
Quercus agrifolia	COAST LIVE OAK
Quercus berberidifolia	SCRUB OAK
Quercus lobata	VALLEY OAK
Umbellularia californica	BAY LAUREL
Acmispon glaber	DEERWEED
Artemisia calfornica	CALIFORNIA SAGEBRUSH
Asclepias fascicularis/Stipa pulchra combos	NARROW LEAF MILKWEED
Baccharis pilularis	COYOTE BRUSH
Baccharis salicifolia	MULEFAT
Diaplacus longiflorus	STICKY MONKEYFLOWER
Epilobium canum	CA FUSCHIA
Eriogonum fasciculatum	CA BUCKWHEAT
Frangula californica	COFFEEBERRY
Hesperoyucca whipplei	CHAPARRAL YUCCA
Lupinus longifolius	LONG LEAF BUSH LUPINE
Malosma laurina	LAUREL SUMAC
Rhamnus ilicifolia	HOLLYLEAF REDBERRY
Rhus integrifolia	LEMONADE BERRY
Salvia apiana	WHITE SAGE
Salvia mellifera	BLACK SAGE
Salvia spathacea	HUMMINGBIRD SAGE
Sphaeralcea ambigua	APRICOT MALLOW